Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.179849 0.202167 0.226289 0.254320 0.286023 0.320795 0.361865
2025-11-16 0.138076 0.166040 0.198453 0.238872 0.288030 0.346010 0.419784
2025-11-23 0.109003 0.139175 0.176394 0.225841 0.290058 0.370972 0.481190
2025-11-30 0.092109 0.124305 0.166380 0.225684 0.307595 0.417444 0.577101
2025-12-07 0.075172 0.106678 0.150069 0.214629 0.309002 0.443076 0.650070
2025-12-14 0.063378 0.094236 0.138864 0.208712 0.316403 0.477973 0.742163
2025-12-21 0.054109 0.084005 0.129247 0.203482 0.323800 0.513825 0.841920
2025-12-28 0.048535 0.078504 0.125853 0.207134 0.345344 0.574706 0.992178
2026-01-04 0.042665 0.071658 0.119320 0.204625 0.356286 0.619869 1.123973
2026-01-11 0.038318 0.066692 0.115131 0.205346 0.372723 0.676822 1.286900
2026-01-18 0.035017 0.063051 0.112656 0.208634 0.394147 0.745941 1.485181
2026-01-25 0.030512 0.056636 0.104377 0.199976 0.391734 0.769785 1.598513
2026-02-01 0.026318 0.050347 0.095691 0.189656 0.385256 0.786239 1.703545
2026-02-08 0.023407 0.046129 0.090384 0.185257 0.390164 0.826903 1.869620
2026-02-15 0.020822 0.042213 0.085152 0.180243 0.393017 0.863862 2.035470
2026-02-22 0.019392 0.040455 0.084050 0.183838 0.415335 0.947683 2.329905
2026-03-01 0.017260 0.036943 0.078814 0.177551 0.414203 0.977682 2.498460
2026-03-08 0.015662 0.034376 0.075276 0.174592 0.420430 1.026336 2.725858
2026-03-15 0.014251 0.032042 0.071945 0.171615 0.426127 1.074740 2.963512
2026-03-22 0.013481 0.031066 0.071564 0.175686 0.450215 1.174369 3.366496
2026-03-29 0.012437 0.029316 0.069143 0.174315 0.459939 1.237849 3.679342
2026-04-05 0.011646 0.028074 0.067784 0.175467 0.476681 1.323727 4.080450
2026-04-12 0.011038 0.027203 0.067226 0.178660 0.499673 1.431729 4.577547